This week (July 20–26), everything in Korean real estate narrowed to a single question: how much, and how, to raise the holding tax. At the National Real Estate Policy Grand Debate chaired by President Lee Jae-myung on July 23, the president endorsed the direction of strengthening the holding tax but drew a firm line against a sharp increase, saying, “To tax at the level of advanced economies, we’d have to raise it threefold — and that would create something close to a riot.” Strengthen the direction, moderate the pace: that one line defined the mood of both the market and policy this week. The next thresholds are the additional forum chaired by the Prime Minister on the 27th, and the tax overhaul plan slated for late July to early August. 🏛️

📌 TL;DR (3 lines)

  • The week’s centerpiece was the July 23 presidential Grand Debate — the direction set was “strengthen the holding tax but pace it,” with differential taxation on ultra-high-end, multi-home, and non-resident properties, plus tighter jeonse-loan rules
  • The leading card in the tax overhaul is raising the comprehensive real estate tax’s fair-market-value ratio (currently 60%) — by the National Assembly Budget Office’s estimate, an 80% setting would push housing holding tax from roughly 8.7 trillion won to about 10 trillion won
  • The market remains strong — Seoul apartment prices have risen for 76 straight weeks, and this year’s “triple surge” (Seoul sales +6.03%, jeonse +6.01%) is what’s pushing policy to move fast

🗓️ This was a week of watching policy being made

This week in real estate wasn’t the week a new measure landed — it was closer to the week the direction was sketched out in public. Last week (July 14–16), sector-by-sector relay forums ran for three days across the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (supply), the Financial Services Commission (finance), and the Ministry of Economy and Finance (tax). The July 23 presidential Grand Debate gathered that discussion, along with the thousands of citizen proposals filed on the government’s real estate site, into one place.

The debate ran about 190 minutes on July 23 at the KBS Annex in Yeouido, Seoul, with 140 participants including experts and ordinary citizens. It featured presentations across the three areas — supply, finance, and tax — followed by open discussion, with the president taking questions directly and explaining the government’s direction. It was here that President Lee remarked, “If today’s talk falls short, I’d like the Prime Minister to hold another round in between,” which set up the additional forum on the 27th. In short, this week sat at the center of a policy-making chain: sector forums → presidential debate → (next week) Prime Minister’s forum → tax overhaul announcement.

🗣️ The ‘3x holding tax’ remark — strengthen the direction, moderate the pace

The most-discussed moment of the week was President Lee’s remarks on the holding tax. The president said, “I broadly agree we need to strengthen the holding tax,” while adding that “what matters is the range, the degree, and what kind of differentiation to apply.” In particular, he drew a clear line against a sharp increase: “To tax at the level of advanced economies, we’d have to raise it threefold — and that would create something close to a riot.”

Put another way, the intent is to raise the holding tax, but not all at once by a large margin. As a taxing principle, he signaled differential taxation — placing a heavier-than-usual burden on “ultra-high-end homes, multiple homes, and clearly speculative non-resident properties.” Where to draw the “ultra-high-end” line, however, split opinion sharply even at the debate. Some argued it should start at a market value of 1 billion won, others that it should be 3 billion or 5 billion won and above. Because that line largely determines the impact on so-called “one prized home” demand, it remains the key variable of the tax overhaul. We covered this in detail in What the President’s ‘3x Holding Tax’ Remark Really Means and the Grand Debate opening recap.

The president also hinted at tightening jeonse-loan rules. Pointing to jeonse loans as one cause of rising apartment prices, he said, “If jeonse becomes too easy to get, home prices all go up in the end” — a stance that reads as an extension of the loan-tightening posture running through last year’s June 27 and October 15 measures.

🧮 The overhaul’s leading card — how high will the fair-market-value ratio go?

With the direction set, attention naturally shifts to the numbers. The card most often cited in the tax overhaul is raising the comprehensive real estate tax’s fair-market-value ratio. That ratio is multiplied against the published price to set the tax base, and it can be adjusted by revising an enforcement decree alone, without National Assembly legislation — which makes it a relatively low-cost lever for the government. The ratio held at around 80% from its 2009 introduction through 2018, climbed to 95% under the Moon Jae-in administration, and was lowered to 60% under the Yoon Suk-yeol administration, where it has stayed.

The numbers give a sense of the burden. According to an analysis by the National Assembly Budget Office, commissioned by Rep. Lee Jong-wook of the People Power Party, 2026 housing holding tax is estimated at roughly 8.6995 trillion won at the current 60%. Raising it to 80% would bring it to 10.0658 trillion won, up about 15.7% (1.3663 trillion won); at 95% it would reach 10.7726 trillion won, up about 23.8%. Per taxpayer, average housing comprehensive real estate tax would rise from the current 3.24 million won to 6.24 million won at 80% (about 1.9x), and to 7.8 million won at 95% (about 2.4x). That said, this is an estimate built on specific assumptions and not a confirmed government plan. How the actual overhaul sets the increase and its scope will have to await the announcement.

On capital gains tax, the discussion leans toward concentrating benefits on “years of actual residence” rather than “years of ownership.” The broad frame is a differential one — holding or partly easing the burden on mid- and low-priced owner-occupied single homes, while strengthening taxation on ultra-high-end and non-resident properties.

📊 The market is still hot — the ‘triple surge’ and 76 straight weeks

Behind the government’s back-to-back forums is a “triple surge” in which sale, jeonse, and monthly-rent prices all climb together. With fewer new move-in units, ample liquidity, and a jeonse shortage overlapping, Seoul apartment sale prices are up 6.03% this year and jeonse up 6.01%. The rise was especially pronounced in areas long seen as relatively affordable, such as Seongbuk-gu (9.87%) and Nowon-gu (7.13%) — which is precisely why buying a first home has grown harder for ordinary households.

The weekly data backs up the trend. By Korea Real Estate Board tallies, Seoul apartment sale prices have risen for 76 consecutive weeks since February last year. As of the third week of July, national sale prices rose 0.09% and jeonse 0.11%; Seoul’s sale-price gain narrowed slightly from 0.30% to 0.27% the prior week, but the climb continued in Gangbuk-area districts like Seongbuk, Nowon, and Jungnang, and in mid- and low-priced areas like Guro, Yeongdeungpo, and Geumcheon. Tension in the jeonse market persists too. As we laid out earlier this week, Seoul’s apartment jeonse supply-demand index rose to its highest in about five and a half years, and jeonse listings shrank to around 20,000 (the jeonse crunch, explained). The assessment that last year’s June 27 and October 15 measures — tighter loans and wider regulated zones — fell short of stabilizing the market is what has now led to this tax card.

🔭 Next week’s outlook — the July 27 PM forum, the late-July tax overhaul, and the Lease Law’s 6th anniversary

Next week is when this week’s sketched direction starts turning into actual numbers. Three dates stand out.

First, at 4 p.m. on Monday the 27th, the National Real Estate Policy Grand Debate reconvenes at the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Jung-gu, Seoul, chaired by Prime Minister Han Seong-sook. It will center mainly on issues the presidential debate couldn’t fully cover — candidates include strengthening the holding tax versus tax resistance, differential taxation for owner-occupiers and multi-home owners, heavier capital gains tax and the resulting listing freeze, support for newlyweds and easing the “marriage penalty,” and new land supply (the D-2 issue recap).

Second, the first to take shape will be the tax overhaul announcement, slated for late July to early August. The key question there is how far the fair-market-value ratio rises, where the ultra-high-end line is drawn, and how differential taxation is designed. Detailed measures on supply and finance are likely to follow before long.

Third, the Lease Law (the right to renewal and the rent cap) reaches its sixth anniversary on July 31. Debate over its side effects — the “dual pricing” between renewal and new contracts, and shrinking jeonse listings — could reignite, making it worth watching alongside jeonse-market stabilization measures.

🧭 The Bottom Line

The week reduces to one line: the direction is set, but the numbers are still blank. Strengthen the holding tax while avoiding a sharp hike; place a heavier burden on ultra-high-end, multi-home, and non-resident properties; and tighten workaround channels like jeonse loans. The big picture has become clear. Yet the key numbers — whether the ultra-high-end line is 1 billion, 3 billion, or 5 billion won, and how far the fair-market-value ratio rises — remain empty.

That is why next week matters. How the issues get sorted at the Prime Minister’s forum on the 27th, and how the breadth and standards of differential taxation land in the late-July-to-early-August overhaul, will shape the actual tax burden and lending conditions. The market runs hot on 76 straight weeks of gains, and policy is straining to cool that heat. How the gap between direction and numbers gets closed next week will be the first fork in the road for the second half’s real estate trajectory.

※ This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.

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