If you have been house-hunting for a jeonse rental lately, the numbers match what you already feel. Seoul’s apartment jeonse supply-demand index stood at 126.7 as of the last week of June — the highest in roughly five and a half years, since January 2021, when the rental laws had just taken effect and listings dried up. Supply keeps shrinking while demand holds steady. On July 31, those lease laws turn six years old. 🏠

TL;DR

  • Korea Real Estate Board’s Seoul apartment jeonse supply-demand index: 126.7 (as of June 29), the highest since the third week of January 2021 (122.8).
  • Seoul apartment jeonse listings total 20,406 — down 11.6% from 23,060 six months earlier.
  • July’s nationwide apartment move-in volume is 15,646 units (Real Estate 114 tally), the lowest for the month in ten years. The Seoul metro area has stayed under 10,000 units for seven straight months.

What Does an Index Reading of 126.7 Mean?

The balance between supply and demand has tilted further than at any point in five and a half years. The jeonse supply-demand index is compiled by the Korea Real Estate Board from brokerage surveys and other inputs, scoring the relative weight of rental demand against supply. Above the neutral line of 100, and closer to 200, means more people are looking for a home than putting one on the market.

According to Edaily, the index reached 126.7 in the fifth week of June (as of the 29th). The previous peak was 122.8 in the third week of January 2021, when listings evaporated in the wake of the lease laws. That mark has now been passed after about five years and six months.

When the index climbs this high, tenants stop choosing among options and start grabbing whatever appears. With less room to weigh conditions, asking prices tend to become contract prices.

How Much Have Listings Actually Fallen?

More than one in ten Seoul apartment jeonse listings vanished in half a year. By Edaily’s count, Seoul apartment jeonse listings number 20,406 — down 2,654 units, or 11.6%, from 23,060 six months ago. The psychological line of 20,000 is within sight.

The decline has not been even, either. Brokers on the ground report that the shortage is sharpest in the most sought-after locations: near subway stations, in strong school districts, and in newly built complexes. The more real demand a neighborhood attracts, the longer the queue.

Figures such as “down 35% year over year” or “a 70% collapse in certain districts” circulate in some online write-ups, but they could not be cross-checked against official statistics, so they are not cited here.

Six Years On, What Have the Lease Laws Changed?

The contract renewal right and the rent cap took effect on July 31, 2020. In essence, a tenant may request one two-year renewal after an initial two-year contract, and the rent increase at renewal is capped at 5%. In theory that guarantees a minimum of four years in one home.

The goal of housing stability was clear enough, but criticism of the side effects has followed the laws for all six years. One is the “dual pricing” problem, where the gap widens between renewed contracts and new ones. The other is that sitting tenants stay put, so fewer units come back onto the market. Within a single complex, jeonse prices have splintered depending on when the contract was signed.

That has kept reform on the table. Some experts argue for patching the flaws first and considering repeal over the long run; others push back just as firmly, warning against weakening tenant protections. As of now, however, the government has not finalized any reform plan. Claims circulating online about an expansion to “3+3 years” could not be traced to a credible source, so they are best treated as unconfirmed until an official announcement.

How Did the June 27 Measures Affect the Rental Market?

The lending rules targeted purchases, but jeonse supply shrank alongside them. The June 27, 2025 household debt measures capped mortgages in the Seoul metro area at 600 million won, cut the LTV for first-time buyers from 80% to 70%, and required buyers who borrow to move in within six months. Jeonse loans conditional on a transfer of ownership were also blocked.

Once an occupancy requirement applies, “gap investment” — buying a home with a sitting tenant’s deposit — effectively stops working. Blocking gap investment curbs speculative demand, but it also removes the chance that those homes come onto the rental market. It was a purchase regulation, yet it trimmed one pillar of jeonse supply.

Why Is Move-In Volume a Concern?

When fewer newly built homes are handed over, rental supply contracts too. Real Estate 114 counts 15,646 units across 28 complexes for nationwide apartment move-ins in July 2026 — roughly 33% below July last year (23,478 units) and the lowest for the month in ten years. That splits into 9,787 units in the Seoul metro area and 5,859 in the provinces.

The metro picture is tighter still. Monthly move-in volumes this year run 8,199 in January, 7,737 in February, 9,798 in March, 8,771 in April, 5,434 in May, and 7,904 in June — seven consecutive months below 10,000. Normally a wave of move-ins floods the market with rental units and holds prices down. That cushion is not working right now.

Standards differ between data providers, and some reports read July’s volume as a turn back upward. The gap appears to come from whether rental units are included and how complexes are counted, so this article specifies the Real Estate 114 basis.

Where Do Jeonse Prices Stand Now?

The pace of increase eased slightly, but the direction is unchanged. In the Korea Real Estate Board’s weekly apartment price survey for the second week of July (as of the 13th), Seoul apartment jeonse prices rose 0.28%, down from 0.31% the previous week. The metro area rose 0.19% and the nation 0.11%.

By district, Seongbuk-gu led at 0.49%, followed by Gangdong-gu at 0.44%, Nowon-gu and Songpa-gu at 0.41% each, Dobong-gu at 0.40%, and Jungnang-gu at 0.35%. Northern and southwestern Seoul are driving the gains. The Board explained that tenant demand continues to concentrate on transit-served areas and school districts with good living conditions, with transactions closing at higher prices.

A week or two of slower gains does not mean the supply squeeze has loosened. The index and the listing count still point the same way.

Overall Assessment 📌

Today’s jeonse crunch does not trace back to a single cause. The long-tenancy structure created by the lease laws, the gap-investment inventory removed by the June 27 occupancy requirement, and move-in volumes at a ten-year low have all landed at the same time. Fixing any one of them alone will not bring the index down.

Three points are worth watching. First, an index above 2021 levels means the binding question is availability before price. Second, districts strong on purchases and districts strong on rentals now overlap in places like Seongbuk, Nowon, and Dobong, so real demand faces pressure from both sides. Third, when move-in volume recovers is the key medium-term variable. When timing a contract, checking a neighborhood’s scheduled completions and listing trends alongside a single weekly figure is the safer approach.

※ This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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