U.S. Big Tech’s second-quarter earnings kick off this week. The market’s attention is fixed less on revenue and profit figures than on one question: will these companies keep raising their AI capital spending (capex)? The first answer comes from Google parent Alphabet on the 22nd (local time). With tech stocks recently rattled by “AI bubble” talk and fears of a semiconductor “peak-out,” this earnings season becomes a gauge of whether AI investment has cooled. Today we lay out this week’s earnings calendar, the points to watch, and the impact on Korea’s chip industry. 🔎

TL;DR

  • Combined 2026 AI capex at Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta is estimated at about $725 billion (roughly ₩1,074 trillion, per Goldman Sachs) — the single biggest thing to watch this earnings season.
  • Alphabet and Tesla report on the 22nd (local time), followed by Microsoft and Meta on the 29th and Apple and Amazon on the 30th; in Korea, SK hynix reports final results on the 29th and Samsung Electronics on the 30th.
  • If the spending stance holds, demand for HBM (high-bandwidth memory) and server DRAM should follow, which favors Korean chipmakers — but the verdict on the “AI bubble” debate hinges on this week’s capex commentary.

🗓️ This Week’s Earnings Calendar — When and Who Reports

This is the week that companies making up a quarter of the S&P 500’s market cap report one after another. According to the industry, Google parent Alphabet and Tesla open the season on the 22nd (local time), followed by Microsoft (MS) and Meta on the 29th, and Apple and Amazon.com on the 30th. Korea’s two chip pillars follow suit: SK hynix reports final results on the 29th and Samsung Electronics on the 30th. Alphabet’s numbers will land in the early morning of the 23rd Korea time, keeping the market’s eyes on earnings all week.

💰 Why Capex Matters More Than the Headline Results

The real battleground this season is not quarterly profit but capital-spending (capex) plans. Goldman Sachs estimates combined 2026 capex at Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta at about $725 billion (roughly ₩1,074 trillion), and projects these firms’ cumulative AI-related investment through 2030 will reach $5.3 trillion. A large share of that money flows into AI infrastructure and data centers — and, in turn, into chip demand. At an investor briefing last month, Google said “AI demand far outstrips our capacity” and pledged to raise this year’s capex to $180–190 billion; Bank of America (BofA) projects it could revise that further upward to $190–200 billion. That said, analysts caution the growth must be backed by core businesses — advertising, search and cloud — rather than one-off accounting effects.

🏭 The Chip Supply Chain Also Signals “Investment Continues”

The signal to keep investing in AI is coming from the semiconductor supply chain as well. Wendell Huang, CFO of the world’s largest foundry, Taiwan’s TSMC, said in a recent Bloomberg and Reuters interview that “we continue to see strong customer demand and multi-year structural demand.” TSMC has formalized an additional $100 billion in its Arizona investment, raising the total to $265 billion (about ₩397.5 trillion), and the Q2 net profit it reported on the 16th was a record NT$706.6 billion (about ₩32.5 trillion). It also lifted its annual capex guidance from the $50-billion range to $60–64 billion — reaffirming its confidence that the AI infrastructure investment cycle will not break in the near term.

🇰🇷 What It Means for Korean Chips

The direction of Big Tech’s investment feeds directly into Korean chipmakers such as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. If the spending stance holds, demand for HBM and server DRAM can grow further. DS Investment & Securities notes that because most newly added capacity will only translate into actual supply after 2028, it is still too early to talk of structural oversupply or a market peak in AI memory. SK hynix’s Q2 results, due on the 29th, are expected by the market to exceed last year’s full-year operating profit — but that is a brokerage estimate, so the actual reported figures will need to be confirmed.

📌 The Bottom Line — This Week Is the Fork in the “AI Bubble vs. Supercycle” Road

This earnings season is where the “AI bubble” debate that recently shook markets gets answered with data. Alphabet’s capex guidance fires the first shot; the full picture only comes into focus after MS, Meta, Apple and Amazon on the 29th–30th, plus Korea’s SK hynix and Samsung Electronics. Three things are worth watching. First, whether Big Tech maintains or raises its capex plans, or shifts to a slower pace. Second, whether that investment is underpinned by core-business growth such as advertising and cloud. Third, whether HBM-centered Korean chip demand shows up in actual results. Much of the direction should become clear within the week.

※ This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.

Sources