Korea’s current account posted a record surplus of $38.61 billion in May 2026. It topped the previous all-time high set just two months earlier in March ($37.93 billion), and the January–May cumulative surplus has already overtaken the whole of last year’s total. Semiconductors are the lead character once again. Yet even with a record surplus, the won has stayed weak at around 1,530 per dollar — a curious split-screen. In this evening briefing we walk through why the dollars earned through trade and the dollars leaving the market are pointing in opposite directions. 📈

Key summary (TL;DR)

  • In the May balance of payments (preliminary) released by the Bank of Korea on July 8, the current account ran a record surplus of $38.61 billion.
  • The goods balance hit a record $37.86 billion surplus, and the primary income balance swung back to a $2.17 billion surplus.
  • The January–May cumulative surplus reached $141.28 billion, surpassing 2025’s full-year surplus ($123.05 billion) in just five months. The Bank of Korea expects this year’s annual surplus to exceed $250 billion.

📊 What Grew, and by How Much, in the May Current Account

The May current account set a fresh all-time high at a $38.61 billion surplus. According to the “May 2026 Balance of Payments (preliminary)” released by the Bank of Korea on July 8, it came in $680 million above the previous record from March ($37.93 billion), rewriting the record in just two months. What stands out is that the goods balance and the primary income balance improved side by side. The goods balance was a record $37.86 billion surplus, while the primary income balance — held down by dividend payouts through April — turned around to a $2.17 billion surplus.

🔧 Why a Record Again — Chips and the Dividend Season Effect

The record was driven by a combination of strong chip exports and the fading of the dividend-season effect. What pushed the goods balance up is still semiconductors. May chip exports came to $37.29 billion, rising sharply from a year earlier and serving as the mainstay of the goods surplus. On top of that, the primary income balance flipped to surplus because dividend season had passed. Around April, dividends flow out heavily to foreign shareholders and push the dividend income balance into deficit; as that seasonal burden lifted in May, the dividend income balance turned to a $1.15 billion surplus, pulling the overall primary income balance into positive territory as well. With goods and primary income improving in the same month, the entire current account jumped to a record.

📈 How Far Can the Cumulative Surplus and Annual Outlook Go

This year’s cumulative surplus has already passed the whole of last year, and the Bank of Korea sees the annual figure topping $250 billion. The January–May current-account surplus was tallied at $141.28 billion — a scale that exceeds the $123.05 billion accumulated over all of 2025, and it did so in just five months, before the year is even half over. Yoo Seong-uk, head of the Bank of Korea’s financial statistics division, noted that “June exports topped $100 billion, led by semiconductors,” and projected that June would also deliver a substantial surplus. On that trajectory, the Bank of Korea judges that this year’s annual current-account surplus will exceed $250 billion.

💵 A Record Surplus, So Why Is the Won Weak?

The reason the won is weak despite a record surplus is that the dollars coming in through trade and the dollars leaving through capital markets are moving in different directions. The current account shows the dollars earned from “real economy and income” transactions such as exports, imports, and dividends — and through this channel, dollars are flowing in generously. The issue lies in the capital and financial account. As foreigners sold the Korean shares they had accumulated and converted the proceeds into dollars, the pressure from dollars leaving via securities investment grew. As a result, the won-dollar rate stayed on a weak path around 1,530 in early July. A current-account surplus is a factor supporting the won’s underlying strength, but this episode shows clearly that the short-term exchange rate reacts more sensitively to the direction of foreign capital.

Overall Take

The May current account can be summed up in one line: “a new record rewritten by chips.” As the goods balance hit a record and the dividend-season effect cleared, the current-account surplus jumped to $38.61 billion, and the cumulative surplus has already overtaken all of last year. Still, the sight of a record surplus and a weak won near 1,530 side by side is a fresh reminder that a trade surplus does not translate directly into a stronger currency. Three points to watch from here: whether chip exports stay strong enough to underpin the surplus beyond June, whether foreign securities-investment money turns back to inflows, and whether the annual $250 billion surplus path the Bank of Korea projects actually holds. Reading the won and the economy in the second half starts with watching the dollars earned through trade and the dollars moving through capital markets together.

※ This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.

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