In Seoul’s apartment market, purchase transactions have overtaken jeonse (lump-sum lease) deals for the first time in four years. By the Seoul Real Estate Information Plaza’s tally (by contract date, as reported), May saw roughly 8,600–8,700 sales versus about 8,300 jeonse contracts — the first time monthly purchases have exceeded jeonse since June 2020, during the last market frenzy. End-users unable to secure a jeonse are shifting toward buying outright, while the remaining leases cluster into monthly rent and renewals — a clear structural change.

TL;DR

  • 📌 In May, Seoul apartment purchases (about 8,600–8,700) overtook jeonse (about 8,300) for the first time in four years.
  • 📌 The monthly-rent share held above 50% for three straight months (March–May), and the gap between new and renewal jeonse deposits doubled in half a year.
  • 📌 The government has signaled a late-July comprehensive package centered on “owner-occupier” tax reform and expanded supply.

🏘️ What Happened — Sales Overtook Jeonse

The core is a shift in demand from “jeonse” to “buying.” By the Seoul Real Estate Information Plaza’s tally, May apartment purchases in Seoul reached about 8,600–8,700 (8,616 or 8,691, depending on the reporting date and outlet), edging past jeonse volume of roughly 8,265–8,324. It is the first time in about four years — since June 2020 — that monthly purchases have topped jeonse in Seoul. Transaction data is based on filed contracts and may be revised later, but multiple outlets report the same reversal in direction.

Buying concentrated in mid-to-low-priced, outer districts. By district, Nowon-gu led with 1,206 transactions, followed by Guro-gu (842), Gangseo-gu (756), Songpa-gu (678), and Seongbuk-gu (635). End-users unable to find a jeonse appear to have turned to purchases in relatively more affordable areas.

💸 Why Are People Leaving Jeonse for Purchases and Monthly Rent?

The backdrop is a drying-up of jeonse supply and monthly rent taking up virtually half of leases. Seoul’s monthly-rent share was 49.9% in May — effectively half — following 50.4% in March and 50.2% in April, three straight months in the 50% range. Cumulatively for January–May it stood at about 51.3%, up more than 7 percentage points from 44.0% a year earlier. Monthly-rent prices also rose 3.37% over January–May, extending a record high since the series began.

Several factors overlap in monthly rent filling the space jeonse leaves behind. Jeonse-loan curbs and the fallout from jeonse fraud have made more tenants reluctant to tie up large deposits, while landlords increasingly prefer converting to monthly rent amid owner-occupancy requirements and tax burdens. On top of that, with jeonse listings themselves shrinking, demand that cannot find a jeonse disperses into purchases or monthly rent.

📑 Even Remaining Jeonse Tilts to Renewals — New vs. Renewal Deposit Gap Doubles

Tenants keeping their jeonse are also choosing to stay put rather than sign anew. Seoul’s jeonse renewal share rose from 47.4% in January to 55.0% in June, overtaking the new-contract share (which fell from 52.6% to 45.0% over the same period) from April onward. With the deposit burden for a new contract rising — plus moving and brokerage costs — more tenants judge that renewal is the better deal.

As a result, the deposit gap between new and renewal contracts widened sharply. For 59㎡ units, the difference between new and renewal deposits more than doubled from 35 million won in January to 77.5 million won in June. Over the same span, new-contract deposits rose from 500 million to 547.5 million won, while renewals edged up only from 465 million to 470 million won. For 84㎡ units, the gap widened even more, from 43.75 million won in January to 80 million won in June. The more a tenant needs a fresh jeonse, the steeper the burden climbs.

🗺️ Pressure Spreading to Gyeonggi and the Late-July Package

Jeonse pressure is spilling beyond Seoul into Gyeonggi Province. So far this year, jeonse prices rose 8.03% in Hwaseong’s Dongtan-gu, 6.21% in Yongin’s Giheung-gu, and 5.08% in Guri. Jeonse gains continue even in newly designated regulated zones, as demand pushed out of Seoul moves into southern Gyeonggi.

The market’s next turning point is the comprehensive real estate package flagged for late July. The government has signaled an “owner-occupier” tax overhaul that protects single-home owner-occupiers while raising the burden on non-resident, speculative holdings, with measures such as stronger comprehensive real estate tax and adjustments to the capital-gains long-term holding deduction under discussion. On the supply side, based on a plan for roughly 41,000 non-apartment units in the greater Seoul area, expanding urban-type housing and officetels downtown is being weighed. That said, specifics like rates and effective dates are not yet fixed, so it is safer to treat this as directional until the announcement.

🧭 The Takeaway

Seoul’s lease market is in a phase where the center of gravity shifts from “jeonse-centric” to “purchase and monthly rent in parallel.” May’s purchases overtaking jeonse looks less like a one-off statistic and more like a signal of structural change created jointly by the jeonse crunch, the shift to monthly rent, and the tilt toward renewals. Still, transaction figures are based on filings and may differ from final counts, and with buying concentrated in mid-to-low-priced outer areas, the temperature varies widely by district and unit size.

Three points to watch: First, if the monthly-rent share and new jeonse deposits keep rising, end-users’ shift to buying may continue. Second, the key question is whether the late-July package’s tax and supply measures will cool this trend or lock up more listings and worsen the jeonse crunch. Third, watch how jeonse pressure spreading from Seoul to Gyeonggi ripples through greater-Seoul prices overall.

※ This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.

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