The second half of the year has begun, yet Seoul apartment move-ins are actually doubling versus the first half — from 6,145 units in H1 to 12,330 units in H2. That does not, however, retire the “supply cliff” warning. Seoul’s full-year 2026 move-ins come to just 18,475 units, only about half of last year’s level. On the first Monday of H2, here is a look at the move-in schedule that will shape the housing market for the next six months, along with the government’s late-July policy package. 🏠

In one line: Because Seoul’s 2026 move-ins are concentrated in the second half, the immediate jeonse crunch may ease somewhat — but the annual volume is the lowest in 13 years, so the structural supply shortage continues. The “owner-occupier-focused” tax and supply package flagged for late July is the biggest H2 variable.

📅 Why Do H2 Seoul Move-Ins Double the First Half?

H2 Seoul apartment move-ins total 12,330 units, roughly double the 6,145 units in H1. Combining tallies from R114 and KB Real Estate, Seoul’s 2026 move-in supply is thin early in the year and thickens toward the second half. Incheon is similar, with 5,611 units in H1 and 8,704 in H2 — more volume waiting in the back half. New move-in complexes are a channel through which jeonse listings are released all at once. So the fact that H2 move-ins outnumber H1 can offer at least localized relief to the recent jeonse crunch. That said, if this volume clusters in specific areas such as Gangnam, the stabilizing effect on jeonse would likely be confined to those areas.

📉 So Why Is It Still Called a ‘Supply Cliff’?

On an annual basis, Seoul’s 2026 move-ins of 18,475 units come to just 56.5% of the 32,703 units in 2025. Separate from the H2 concentration, the total yearly supply itself has been cut nearly in half. The nationwide picture is similar. Nationwide apartment move-ins for 2026 are tallied at 183,124 units, down 22.5% year on year — the lowest in 13 years, since 2013. Some statistics put Seoul’s figure lower still, in the 16,000-unit range, so the exact number varies somewhat by compiling agency. Ultimately, the key is the direction. Because a drop in construction starts shows up in move-in volume with a two-to-three-year lag, there are concerns that the current supply contraction could persist beyond 2027.

🗺️ What About Regional Differences Across Greater Seoul?

Move-in volume across the greater Seoul area has fallen at different rates by region. Total 2026 move-ins for the greater Seoul area are tallied at 88,821 units. Gyeonggi Province comes to 56,031 units, down 8.3% year on year — a relatively gentle decline — while Incheon fell 19.5% to 14,315 units. Seoul’s drop is the steepest. Even within the same greater-Seoul region, parts of Gyeonggi see steady new move-ins, whereas Seoul faces added pressure from redevelopment and reconstruction relocation demand, which can make the strain on the jeonse market feel heavier. That said, some tallies put the greater-Seoul total higher, in the 110,000-unit range, so regional figures are safer treated as reference points.

🏛️ The Late-July ‘Housing Policy Package’ — What to Watch

The government has flagged a comprehensive housing policy package for late July, spanning acquisition, holding, and transfer. There are two main pillars. On the tax side, an “owner-occupier-focused” redesign is central. Rather than legislation to directly raise the comprehensive real estate tax rate, priority is reportedly on measures achievable by decree alone without parliamentary consent — such as raising the fair-market-value ratio and adjusting the assessed-price realization rate. On the supply side, building on a plan for non-apartment supply in the greater Seoul area, an expansion of urban-living housing and officetels using small urban plots is under discussion. That said, the tax rates, timing, and specific volumes have not yet been officially announced, so it is appropriate to treat only the direction as a reference until the actual package appears.

📝 The Takeaway

The two faces of the H2 housing market are clear. With move-ins doubling into the second half, short-term jeonse supply and demand has some room to improve — yet annual supply is at a 13-year low, leaving the structural shortage intact. On top of that, the late-July package is set to intervene in the market on two fronts, “owner-occupier-focused” taxation and supply expansion, so the H2 trajectory could split depending on the policy announcement. Three points to watch: whether H2 move-in volume actually pushes down jeonse prices or is confined to specific areas; how strong the tax measures are and when they take effect; and how large the lag effect of falling construction starts will be on supply beyond 2027.

※ This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.

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