Greater Seoul’s housing market in June 2026 can be summed up as “a rally that even regulation could not stop.” Over the year since the 6·27 lending rules took effect, average Seoul apartment prices climbed 11–12%, and through the fourth week of June they rose for a 72nd consecutive week. The rules that suppressed sales instead fueled jeonse (lump-sum lease deposit) demand, pushing jeonse prices to their highest weekly gain in 12 years and 8 months. Now the market’s gaze has shifted to the second-half “supply cliff” as move-in volumes plunge. Today we recap June’s market and look ahead to July. 🏠

TL;DR

  • One year of 6·27 rules: average Seoul apartment prices up roughly 11–12%; the regulatory effect lasted only 3–6 months
  • June market: Seoul up for a 72nd straight week, jeonse at a 12-year-8-month high, Dongtan the first district nationwide with a double-digit year-to-date gain
  • H2 variable: 2026 Seoul move-in supply falling to less than half of last year’s, raising “supply cliff” concerns

📉 Why did prices rise even more a year after the 6·27 rules?

Borrowing was tightened, yet the one-year scorecard was double-digit growth. By KB Kookmin Bank’s gauge, the average Seoul apartment price rose from about 1.415 billion won just before the 6·27 rules to about 1.583 billion won a year later — an 11.8% gain (roughly 168 million won). The Korea Real Estate Board (KREB) sale price index tells a similar story, climbing from 92.56 in May 2025 to 102.71 in May 2026, up 10.9%.

The policy’s potency faded quickly. KREB’s weekly sale-price change for Seoul had spiked to 0.40% just before the announcement, eased to 0.08% (September 8, 2025) afterward, and then widened again. The market consensus is that the regulatory effect lasted three months — six at most. Curbing loans trimmed gap-investment and speculative demand, but owner-occupier buying kept up and prices resumed their climb.

🔑 June’s market: How far did the rally spread?

Seoul kept rising in June, and the warmth spread to southern Gyeonggi. In KREB’s data for the fourth week of June (as of the 22nd), Seoul apartment prices rose 0.30%, extending the streak to 72 consecutive weeks since turning higher in the first week of February 2025. Among districts, Seongbuk, Guro, Dongdaemun, and Jung showed strength. KB Kookmin’s June survey also showed Seoul apartment prices up 1.07% month on month, widening the increase.

A rally that had struggled to spread to the provinces was clearly visible in southern Gyeonggi. As optimism over a semiconductor boom carried into the housing market, Hwaseong’s Dongtan became the first city or district nationwide to post a double-digit year-to-date gain. That said, a sharp short-term jump in any one area may reflect concentrated trades or base effects, so whether it hardens into a trend bears watching.

🏚️ Why is jeonse rising so fast?

The regulation that suppressed sales shifted pressure onto the jeonse market. In the fourth week of June, Seoul apartment jeonse prices posted their highest weekly gain in 12 years and 8 months. Designation of land-transaction-permit zones added a real-residency requirement that thinned the supply of gap-investment jeonse listings, while the 2020 lease law let existing tenants extend their stays via the contract-renewal right — making the pool of jeonse units genuinely scarce.

On top of that, since April 2025 multi-home owners and rental operators have, in principle, been barred from extending the maturity of mortgage loans on homes in regulated Greater Seoul zones, pushing some sale demand into jeonse and adding pressure. With listings shrinking and demand migrating, the structure for rising jeonse prices was set.

🏗️ Is the H2 “supply cliff” real?

The key variable for the second half is volume, not price. Estimates for 2026 Seoul apartment move-in supply range from about 9,600 to over 16,000 units depending on the source, but all agree it falls to less than half of 2025’s roughly 37,000 units. Nationwide, 2026 move-in supply is tallied at about 172,270 units, down roughly 28% from 2025’s about 238,372.

The government is responding to the shortfall. The “9·7 Housing Supply Plan” announced in September 2025 calls for breaking ground on 1.35 million homes in Seoul and Greater Seoul by 2030. Yet there is a substantial lag from permitting to groundbreaking to occupancy, so it cannot fill the immediate supply cliff. Private forecasters also lean toward gains: the Construction & Economy Research Institute of Korea projects national apartment prices up 0.8% and Greater Seoul up 2% in 2026.

📝 The takeaway: What to watch in July

Greater Seoul’s housing market has now spent a full year in a pattern of “regulation suppressing sales while that pressure migrates into jeonse.” The one-year scorecard on the 6·27 rules was double-digit growth; Seoul rose for a 72nd straight week in June, and jeonse logged its highest gain in over 12 years. For the second half, a supply cliff from plunging move-in volumes has emerged as the biggest variable.

Three points stand out from here. First, how much the shrinking move-in supply further stokes the jeonse crunch. Second, whether the surge in some areas such as southern Gyeonggi hardens into a trend or proves a short-term spike. Third, how quickly the government’s supply measures can meet market expectations. Rather than chasing only the direction of prices, this is a moment to weigh both volume and the lag in policy.

※ This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.

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