A full year has passed since the June 27 lending curbs took effect. Yet Seoul apartment prices, far from cooling, climbed even more sharply. On the Korea Real Estate Board’s sale price index, prices had risen 6.7% in the year before the rules; in the year after, they rose about 11% — a faster pace. Borrowing got harder, but demand did not vanish. It moved to cheaper, smaller units and outer districts, and the climb continued.

TL;DR

  • One year after the June 27 measures (June 27, 2025), Seoul apartment prices rose roughly 9–15% depending on the source. On the Korea Real Estate Board index it was about 11% — wider than the 6.7% gain in the prior year.
  • The share of transactions in apartments priced at or below 900 million won grew from 38% to 50%, and smaller 40–60㎡ units outpaced large ones. Demand shifted toward lower-priced, smaller, outer homes.
  • Buyers who rely on loans were sidelined, while cash-rich demand kept buying — a textbook balloon effect, critics say.

What did the June 27 measures regulate?

The June 27 package was a household-debt management plan that sharply tightened mortgages in the capital region and regulated zones. The Financial Services Commission announced it on June 27, 2025, with enforcement from the 28th. The core elements:

  • 600 million won mortgage cap: In the capital region and regulated zones, the maximum home-purchase mortgage was capped at 600 million won. Balance loans are included; interim (middle-payment) loans are not.
  • Tighter first-time-buyer LTV: The LTV for first-time home purchases was cut from 80% to 70%, with a duty to move in within six months.
  • Squeezing multiple-home owners: Living-stability loans against owned homes were capped at 100 million won, and barred entirely for borrowers owning two or more homes in the capital region or regulated zones.
  • Maturity, jeonse, and credit-loan limits: Mortgage maturities were capped at 30 years, the jeonse loan guarantee ratio was cut from 90% to 80%, ownership-transfer-conditional jeonse loans (a gap-investment route) were banned, and credit-loan limits were held to within annual income.

In short, it narrowed from every direction the path of “borrowing big to buy an expensive home.”

What happened to Seoul prices a year later?

Despite the rules, Seoul apartment prices rose by nearly double digits over the year — though the exact figure varies by source.

  • On the Korea Real Estate Board’s raw sale price index, Seoul apartments rose from 92.56 in May 2025 to 102.71 in May 2026, a gain of about 11.0%. That tops the 6.7% rise in the year before the measures.
  • Some tallies put the one-year rise at about 9.44% as of June 15, while private surveys such as Real Estate R114 read it higher, at 15% or more.

The numbers differ by source, but the direction agrees: gains widened after the rules, not before. In June 2026, all 25 of Seoul’s districts turned higher together for the first time in about four months.

Why didn’t the rules cool prices?

When the curbs pressed down on demand for pricier homes, that demand didn’t disappear — it moved to cheaper listings. A classic balloon effect.

  • Crowding into lower-priced apartments: The share of Seoul transactions in apartments at or below 900 million won rose from 38% to 50% after the measures. Demand clustered in the price band buyable within the 600-million-won cap.
  • Small units outpacing large: The sale price index for 40–60㎡ Seoul apartments rose about 6.72% from late last year through the fourth week of June, well ahead of larger units.
  • From Gangnam to the outskirts: Trading in the three Gangnam districts slowed, while gains stood out in outer areas like Nowon, Dobong, and Gangbuk, and in non-Gangnam districts such as Dongdaemun (about 13.89% over a year), Mapo (about 12.04%), and Seongdong (about 8.49%).

How were genuine homebuyers affected?

The more a buyer depended on loans, the higher the purchase hurdle became, critics note. Cash-rich buyers felt less of a hit, while loan-dependent, home-less owner-occupiers faced the bigger constraint.

The presale and move-in market also cooled. By one tally, in the two months after the June 27 measures, Seoul apartment presale-right and occupancy-right transactions came to 110 cases — about 48.9% of the prior two months’ 225, roughly a halving. As deals thinned, so did the market’s vigor.

The bottom line — what to watch after one year

The one-year report card for the June 27 measures reads less as “price stability” and more as “a shift in demand.” Tightening loan limits pressed down high-end and large-unit demand, but that demand flowed to cheaper, smaller, outer homes, so Seoul’s overall climb never broke. A roughly 11% one-year rise on the Korea Real Estate Board index is in fact faster than the 6.7% before the rules.

Three things to watch ahead. First, whether follow-on rules such as the DSR taking effect from July reshape the demand-shift trend. Second, how far demand crowding into lower-priced, outer areas pushes prices there. Third, whether a prolonged squeeze on presales and transactions returns as a medium-to-long-term supply burden. With a year of data showing that lending curbs alone struggle to hold prices, a balanced view that weighs demand, supply, and rates together is now needed.

※ This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.

Sources